Substitution of materials, equipment and low carbon fuels for high carbon fuels is underway and moving forward faster in some countries and economic sectors than others. Substitution of manufactured equipment for fuels adds “life cycle carbon” to historical and on-going GHG emissions. To what extent do GHGs emitted in creating low carbon energy economies retard overall decarbonization progress? Life cycle carbon emissions for the years 2020 through 2029 add up to a minimum of 35 billion metric tons of CO2-eq, or roughly a year’s worth of current global energy related GHG emissions. Overall life cycle carbon emissions will continue to increase after 2029 at least until direct global GHG emissions are brought under control.
The Gathering Storm
What is the best mix of locally generated and imported energy from the perspectives of cost and resilience? The answer will be different for every community. Should we wait for the long-promised “smart electricity grid”? Or should our counties and cities take up the task of making local infrastructure not only smart but technically and economically well-integrated? If so, they will be wise to collaborate with incumbent energy utilities. And with local families and businesses as well.